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Inflation! Yes, it’s back! Not happy Jan!  

And the question everyone is asking, ‘Who is to blame?’ 

Before we go down that bunny-hole let’s reflect. 

We first explored this conundrum back in March 2024. We examined ‘Inflation and Interest rates 70 Years 1970 to 2024’ then followed with ‘Inflation - What’s it all about! Where did it come from?’ 

It was an interesting and enlightening journey that revealed, amongst other things, the policy adopted to beat inflation.

I.e. ‘In Australia, the Reserve Bank (RBA) conducts monetary policy and is a means to control inflation. This policy aims to achieve goals of price stability, full employment and economic prosperity and welfare of Australians. It does this by targeting inflation at between 2-3%. By raising interest rates, the Reserve Bank aims to deter consumer spending and limit the purchase of higher risk assets.This policy was applied in 2023 with total rate increases of 1.25% per annum.

In this strategy framework, last year, the Reserve Bank (RBA) cut rates three times as inflation declined. The last rate cut was in August.  

Time passes, and although inflation has fallen since its peak in 2022, it has risen in the second half of 2025, with annual inflation running above the 2.3% target on all measures. Inflation! It’s back! 

To counter this, at its first meeting in February 2026, the Reserve Bank Board lifted interest rates by 0.25% percentage points.  The new cash rate is 3.85%, up from 3.6%. 

The RBA issued a statement saying, ‘it considers inflation is likely to remain above target for some time. Capacity pressures reflect, in part, the greater momentum in demand seen in recent months. Growth in private demand has strengthened substantially more than expected, driven by both household spending and investment.’ ‘Activity and prices in the housing market are also continuing to pick up’, while conditions in the labour market were also a ‘little tight’. 

There you have it! And begs the question, who’s to blame? That has seen finger-pointing and accusations played out in the media. 

• The RBA Governor suggested ‘the pickup is due to a combination of factors across a broad range of components and sectors’ and was reluctant to assign blame or accept it. 

• In the Reserve Bank Statement on Monetary Policy overview, February 2026, it was stated ' Australian economic growth and inflation have been stronger than expected compared with six months ago.' 'some of the increase is driven by capacity constraints' . 

• Inflation is impacted by ‘a time of uncertainty’ as nervous global markets and investors respond to the changing trading environment. It’s a fluctuating landscape with no rules!. 

• An influx of English cricket tourists' spending during the recent Ashes tour series hit the headlines as ‘Blame the Barmy Army’ for the rate rise. Claims that associated spending on accommodation, food, flights and related items were a driving force behind a rise in inflation.     

• Household spending over the year remained high, up 5% compared with December 2024, according to ABS Business stats just released. There are recent declines in some areas post-Black Friday and promotional sales, while demand in others rose. 

• One Tech retail giant attributed its recent record sales to customers defying the cost-of-living pressures and upgrading to the latest computers, phones, games, and other gadgets. 

• Record high ‘runaway’ Government spending was stated by the RBA Governor as fueling inflation, contributing to the need for this latest rate increase.  

• Treasurer Chalmers has argued that private sector spending is fueling inflation, not public sector spending. 

• Years of low and weak productivity growth are part of the problem equation. 

So, what does this mean, how are we affected?  Consider these differing views, thoughts, and opinions.  

• Some experts suggest that much of the recent rise in inflation will be temporary. 

• Others say mortgage holders should brace for more rate rises this year. 

• The RBA expects headline inflation to climb higher to 4.2% by June, up from 3.8% in 2025. 

• Governments to help lower inflation can reduce spending levels in the near term and, in the longer term, help boost the supply side of the economy. 

• Keeping inflation low and around target is vital in terms of maintaining and maximising living standards in Australia.  

• In the longer term lower and more stable inflation can ultimately reduce borrowing costs over time. 

• Increased productivity is a way to dampen inflation. 

• Fighting inflation is harder in a tight jobs market, with lower than average unemployment and rising spending according to a Reserve Bank spokesperson. The housing construction industry cited, with finding a tradie in WA, the example of a symptom.

• Many households with large mortgages will feel the pain as related repayments increase. Additionally, the cost of living expenses also add to this financial pain. 

• Tighten your belt, throw your hands in the air, shop wisely and carefully! Are you suffering from cut-back fatigue? Or travel, take a holiday, buy a new car! How much you are affected, little or severvely usually depends on your financial circumstances. Always has and always will be. 

• Watch this space, rising inflation can be good for your superannuation.  There's more to this in the finer detail. Speak with Blackburn Accounting your Family Business Specialist if you need advice on Superannuation and Retirement Planning and Business matters.

Whose to blame!

To sum up, strong private demand, robust consumption at the end of last during a time of low unemployment and not to mention the effects of high Government spending has fuelled inflation resulting in the latest rate rise!

Watch this space!

Join in the conversation. Terms to know include: headline inflation, capacity constraints, market conditions, volatile items, inflationary pressures, and discretionary spending.